Photo: Roger Kisby/Getty Images
Like any good horse race, SXSW pits a host of young stallions against one another in a four day boozing/guitar race around downtown Austin, Texas. Besides the mountain of free Lone Star, all this hyperbole allows some interesting scenarios for those who like to bet on things other than the NCAA tournament. We turned to the bookmakers at Bodog.com for a crash course on odds-making and came up with some SXSW-specific bets, should fans feel like wagering amongst friends about the 2011 music landscape.
“Any bet has to be graded on quantifiable data,” Bodog.com Sportsbook Manager Richard Gardner tells Hive. “It has to have a definite way to figure out if you’ve won.”
Let’s break it down:
In determining odds, you’re saying how many times you expect something to happen. In a deck of 52 cards, there are four aces, meaning the odds of drawing one are 52/4, which — using the power of mathematics – reduces to 13/1. That same principle works in the music world too; Say we calculate the odds of Julian Casablancas wearing sunglasses during the Strokes nighttime set at 5/4. This means if he were to play five times, we expect that on four of those occasions Casablancas will wear those sunglasses at night.
With all that in mind, here’s our (mostly) scientific and (very-semi) professional opinion about the odds surrounding a few very important SXSW questions.
1. Of the hyped bands coming to Austin, who might we still care about in October?
The first step here is to determine what “care about” means, and how you’d quantify it. For our purposes, let’s say it means: “Will any of the following bands sell 10,000 records by October 31st, 2011?” In this case, we picked four hyped acts on riding in with their debut album: Tennis, Cloud Nothings, Cults and Givers. We start by giving Tennis and Cloud Nothings points for the fact that they’ve got a head start — both of their records have been released, while Cults and Givers are still sitting on their debuts. Cloud Nothings garnered particularly strong reviews, so they have a more favorable outlook. Meanwhile, Cults have the backing of Columbia Records and are establishing themselves as a headlining act. Givers faces longer odds, but their eventual album – slated for sometime later this year – is among the most-requested 2011 debuts on the obsessive torrent site What.cd, which gives a strong indication that people who geek out over this stuff are likely to embrace them.
We’re staking our money on the Cults being the most likely to get an Arcade Fire-style Tumblr devoted to people wondering who the hell they are.
Tennis 8/1
Cloud Nothings 11/2
Cults 2/1
Givers 12/1
2. Will the following ‘90s acts will see a significant career resurrection after playing SXSW?
In determining what a “significant career resurrection” entails, we considered a success to be: getting booked at the 2011 edition of Bonnaroo, Lollapalooza or Austin City Limits festival, or selling at least 20,000 copies of a newly-released record in 2011.
We think Marcy Playground has about a 200/1 shot — we wouldn’t want to lose our shirts on it, but we recognize that the band wasn’t even particularly well-regarded during their heyday. Also improbable for a rebirth is K’s Choice, although 2010′s Echo Mountain (their first in a decade) managed to garner positive reviews. On the other hand, Smoking Popes have major cult appeal, and we’re not ones to underestimate cult fanaticism — they could certainly make some tiny waves. Finally, Dan Wilson – former frontman for ‘90s one-hit wonders Semisonic – continues to have a solid career as a songwriter and producer, penning tunes for major acts like the Dixie Chicks and Adele. On the chance he’s saved at least one great song for himself, he could be due for a second life.
Odds are better that you’ll hear a Dan Wilson song this year (besides Adele singing “Someone Like You”) before you’ll hear K’s Choice, Marcy Playground or the Smoking Popes. But if you see him play at a festival, don’t yell for Semisonic’s “Closing Time,” OK? No one wants it … not even Dan.
Marcy Playground 200/1
K’s Choice 70/1
Smoking Popes 16/1
Dan Wilson 13/2
3. Will the following successful British band gain a U.S. following after SXSW?
A lot of British acts have used SXSW as a jumping off platform for their U.S. career — recent runaway success stories include Amy Winehouse, Bloc Party and Hot Chip. For our purposes, we define “gain a following” as “release a record in the U.S. that sells as many copies as their most recent UK release.”
Norwich, England rockers Fever Fever ride in with an impressive amount of hype from their home country after the release of their debut 10-inch The Bloodless. But without anything available on iTunes, they face long odds that we’ll care. Electronic artist Gold Panda saw his debut, Lucky Shiner earn the Guardian‘s 2010 “First Album” award and reviews Stateside are largely positive. The Boxer Rebellion are touring regularly here and with the physical release of The Cold Still due later this month, they might start moving units at those merch tables. Finally, Leeds’ Pulled Apart by Horses received acclaim from NME and the Guardian, but hasn’t blipped much over here. Still, that’s a cool band name so we think they could have some legs.
Assuming positive reviews translate into sales, we like Gold Panda’s odds here; America has loads of rock bands, but the national character seems ready to embrace some headphones-ready, melancholy electronic music from someone that doesn’t have Neon in their name.
Fever Fever 40/1
Gold Panda 9/2
The Boxer Rebellion 12/1
Pulled Apart By Horses 80/1
4. Will you get food poisoning from a food truck?
As ubiquitous as a skinny dude slugging a guitar amp down 6th Street, Austin’s food trucks have become a celebrated part of the city’s identity. At the same time, you are eating food made in a truck. What are the odds you’ll walk away with some form of Food Truck’s Revenge? We define food poisoning as “puking” or “consistent stomach pains for three plus hours,” and limit the entrants only to people who actually ate something they bought at a made-to-order in something on wheels.
We’re giving you 4/1 odds that you’ll get some form of queasy and 2/1 odds that you won’t. You’ll probably be OK if you stick to cupcakes and cake balls, but beware truck pizza! And regardless of the odds, go ahead and pack a Tums. It’s better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it. Or something.
